Taking Stock of New Bonds
Someone recently asked me about the big bond the Legislature recently agreed on. My response:---------------------------
It’s not one bond, it’s several.
SB 1266 / SB 86‹ Transportation $18.975 billion
SB 1689 / SB 364 Housing 2.850 billion
AB 127 / SB 79 Education 10.416 billion
AB 140 / SB 87 Flood protection 4.090 billion
Total $36.331 billion
My prognosis:
My own gut instinct says that the Transportation and Flood Protection measures will pass. There's general agreement among enough people that our roads are in terrible condition. The measure will be opposed by transportation alternative advocates but with a simple majority needed the road-loving majority will prevail. As for floods, after Katrina this is almost a slam dunk.
The Education measure is a tossup given recent polling on how voters see education spending, and Housing probably dead on arrival. With home prices skyrocketing even in the inland areas, I feel that voters are going to be less likely to view (in perception) spending tax money to make it easier for someone else to keep a roof over their head.
There are a whole lot of potential measures for the November ballot, everything from eliminating domestic partnership, new taxes to allowing parents to give alcohol to their kids. This June is pretty thin regarding initiatives. There is also talk of the legislature removing a bond for high speed rail up and down the state. Next November is probably going to be a whole lot more interesting.
Here’s the secretary of State’s link to what’s on tap:
http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/elections_j.htm#2006General
posted by Terry Preston @ 10:52 AM
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