Notes from the Blue Bear Republic

In The Year 2026

The Republican president, in the second year of his second term and needing a win, decided to take on immigration policy reform, to win a victory for “legacy”, something to be remembered by. Presidents usually don’t have much political capital to spend at this point, so a win here would go far in the eyes of the pundits and historians.

The measure was built around amnesty for illegal immigrants currently in the country and increased sanctions for employers who hired illegal immigrants in the future. Many conservatives thought it rewarded illegal behavior and worried about an army of papists overrunning the land. Liberals generally applauded, but felt it didn’t go far enough and worried about employer sanctions justifying workplace discrimination against legal residents. The proposal passed with enough cross party support to override these political concerns.

This isn’t a crystal ball’s look into 2007. It’s a look back to 1986.

We’ve been here before. We’ll no doubt be here again twenty years from now too.

The forces pulling at immigration from down south is strong. It’s the only place where the First and Third Worlds live in such close proximity and along such a long border. There’s nothing natural about the border, except a murky ditch along the eastern end which came in handy when drawing lines after the Mexican War but has rarely been much of a hindrance to people going in either direction over it. People are going to come. There’s no stopping it.

So I figure that the “immigration reform” debate is just something we’ll have to put up with every generation. As the economy grows it will require cheap labor, and cheap labor will come to meet the need. Eventually, this will well up into a national debate, frightening many and encouraging others. We’ll have rallies, angry militias and congressional proposals. We’ll come up with a new amnesty, new requirements and sanctions for employers who hire (but unless we adopt a verifiable form of electronic national work I.D, it won’t mean anything) and we’re set for another generation.

So when my son Leroy is watching this play out again in 2026, I can yawn from my rocking chair and say, “been there, done that…twice.” And tell him to mark his calendar for 2046 when he too can see it again.

posted by Terry Preston @ 2:22 PM