Steve Westly for President
No, I haven’t suddenly decided that Steve Westly is presidential timber. As an observer of the political scene, however, I see that a good run for the governor's house by Westly holds more and broader consequences than if Phil Angelides does it.As a committed moderate in ridiculously large state, Governor Westly would immediately be considered possible presidential candidate material. Not in 2008, that’s too soon, but if the GOP holds onto the White House two years from now then even a moderately (no pun intended) Westly would be moved to the front of the pack in 2012.
On paper, Westly’s got all the credentials the moderate national Democratic Party leadership looks for. He’s a successful businessman, to counter charges of neo-socialist leanings. He’s moderate to liberal on social issues, and has made his political living so far scrupulously avoiding them. He’s good looking and best of all, he’s “happy.” Much of the national Dem leadership looks to counter the GOP’s “last angry man” approach with waves of breezy optimism. Put him and John Edwards on the same ticket and you’ll have more joy than last Friday’s episode of “Barney” episode.
Moderate California governors generally get a good look over as possible resident of the Oval Office. Pete Wilson did, but his complete lack of charisma and his short term strategy of pounding on the growing Latino vote in the mid’’90s doomed him. Gray Davis got a look too, but he made Wilson look like Mr. Excitement in a personality comparison.
Westly doesn’t have that problem. He comes across as sincerely engaging, and honestly happy. (Who couldn’t be happy who was able to kick in over $20 million of his own dollars to his campaign?)
Even if Westly loses against Schwarzenegger, he wins. Arnold still holds enough celebrity cachet to make it acceptable for a Democratic candidate to lose with honor. Win or lose, Westly wins by providing a fresh and possible electable face to a national party starving for them.
A Westly win in the primary alone also rocks up the push for independent redistricting process. The common wisdom among statewide pundits such as Dan Walters and Daniel Weintraub is that there is a deep well of moderate wisdom among California voters which is marginalized by legislative districts drawn to benefit ideologues of the left and right. This voice can only be heard in statewide elections, which results in moderate executives taking on the activist wings of both parties, resulting in continual stalemate.
Schwarzenegger represents a voice of the relatively moderate (non-social issues) wing of the state GOP. If Westly beats Angelides in June, it would arguably demonstrate the existence of a less-than-tax-and-spend wing among Democrats. Again, even if Westly loses in November, he will arguably demonstrate this wing’s silent numbers and there will be a renewed push to reflect this in legislative and congressional races. There will be a new, comprehensive redistricting plan on the June 2008 ballot, mark my words.
This isn’t my wish. I support Phil Angelides for governor in good part because only a combination of more revenue and service cuts can close the deficit. Angelides is honest enough to say that, and I hope he wins so he can keep saying it, and then move to make it happen as governor.
But in long term impact nationally and in other areas of state policy, a Westly victory in the primary alone is more far reaching.
posted by Terry Preston @ 6:48 PM
4 Comments:
Great looking site and interesting commentary--as I knew you would have. I've enjoyed having you write some stuff for the California Progress Report and now look forward to reading your blog.
I'll take either Democratic candidate for Governor. I have my preference but won't be endorsing pre primary.
Frank,
The general consensus around the Legislature seems to be a collective "yawn." I think everyone knows that no matter who wins, the basic math of not enough income to cover the outgo stays the same, at least in the short run.
It's hard to generate excitement when circumstances dictate that nothing much really will change no matter who wins.
I agree wholeheartedly with you concerning the election of Phil Angelides for governor. He has done great things to help our state thus far and I have full trust that if he is elected governor he will continue to put the people of California first. Phil Angelides certainly has my vote.
I like the honesty about the need to raise taxes. Westly promotes the attractive but ridiculous idea that there's some hidden pot stuffed inside a mattress somewhere inside state government, and if we could just find it ...
Sometimes things need to play out before they reach the inevitable conclusion. Maybe Westly needs to try to show the public that it just ain't so.
We need to get rid of the idiotic two thirds requirement for budget and taxes which keeps the governing majority from being able to govern, since budgets and taxes are most of what governing is all about. It's a hard sell, as the unions' recent initiative attempt found out, but it has to be done.
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